The same split install genuinely costs 15–20% more in January than in the autumn and spring shoulders, on a $3,200 job, that's $320–$480 for the privilege of buying during a heatwave, often with a 2–4 week queue attached. Quote in the shoulder season; install before the first 35°C day. That's the whole trick.
Why the premium exists
It isn't gouging, it's a capacity market doing what capacity markets do. An installer has a fixed number of crews. From December to February, demand triples: every quote request competes with breakdown replacements from people who have no working aircon in a heatwave and will pay to jump the queue. Installers stop discounting because they don't need to win jobs the jobs are queueing for them. By April the queue is gone and the same business is pricing to keep crews busy. Same van, same unit, different month, different number.
The curve, month by month
| Window | vs. fair price | What's happening |
|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | +15–20% | Peak queue; breakdown jobs pay premiums; 2–4 week waits |
| Mar–May | –5–10% | The best window, calendars empty out, pricing sharpens fast |
| Jun–Aug | –5–10% | Quietest books; keenest prices on cooling-led jobs |
| Sep–Nov | fair to –5% | Smart-money season: quote now, installed before the first heatwave |
Compiled from our quote database and installer pricing behaviour; the exact swing varies by city and system type. Ranges are directional, not a promise.
The heatwave queue, explained
The other January cost is time. When a heat event hits, installers triage: jobs they can quote sight-unseen and book immediately go first. That's why having a photo of your old unit ready to text your installers is worth real money in summer, it turns your job from "site visit needed, next week at best" into "quoted within the hour, booked tomorrow." It's also why our urgent install page is built around exactly this.
Playing the curve
- Best move: quote in September–October, install by November. Sharp pricing and cold air before Christmas.
- Sharpest price: March–August, if you can plan a year's comfort in advance, most people can't, which is exactly why the discount exists.
- Worst move: first 38°C week of January, single quote, no photo to offer. That's the full premium plus the full queue.
- Already January? Photo ready to text, like-for-like swap, 3 quotes. You'll lose the seasonal discount but not the negotiation.
Reading this in the shoulder season? You're in the cheap window right now, that's not urgency marketing, it's the table above.
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